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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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